Agreed about preparedness. It seems that one of the best things we can do for the future is reduce uncertainty about how to help people generally by learning how to best help people in the here and now. There's lots of stuff we can be trying now rather than speculate about the numbers of people in the future and what might help them
I would say that your argument about uncertainty is at its strongest when applied to (a) specific mitigation strategies that are common to multiple risks (eg get off earth) and (b) strategies that increase future resources for dealing with whatever risk comes along (eg reducing regulation of business to increase productivity growth over the next 100 years) and (c) mitigation strategies that attack problems that turn other risks from disasters to existential risks (eg North Korea attacks South Korea vs North Korea nukes South Korea, causing worldwide nuclear war).
Agreed about preparedness. It seems that one of the best things we can do for the future is reduce uncertainty about how to help people generally by learning how to best help people in the here and now. There's lots of stuff we can be trying now rather than speculate about the numbers of people in the future and what might help them
I would say that your argument about uncertainty is at its strongest when applied to (a) specific mitigation strategies that are common to multiple risks (eg get off earth) and (b) strategies that increase future resources for dealing with whatever risk comes along (eg reducing regulation of business to increase productivity growth over the next 100 years) and (c) mitigation strategies that attack problems that turn other risks from disasters to existential risks (eg North Korea attacks South Korea vs North Korea nukes South Korea, causing worldwide nuclear war).